Helicopter market outlook highlights disciplined growth amid shifting global landscape

Written By Jen Nevans | Retrieved from Vertical Magazine

The global helicopter market is navigating a shifting landscape shaped by geopolitical instability, fluctuating energy markets, and growing demands for sustainability — factors that present both challenges and opportunities for the industry’s future.

Sara Dhariwal, principal aviation analyst and lead appraiser at Cirium Ascend Consultancy, highlighted these dynamics during an April 9 webinar on the 2025 helicopter market outlook. She said the industry is operating against a “backdrop of an ever-increasing turbulence in the geopolitical climate, causing questions over what that means for global financial health and oil pricing.”

The oil-and-gas sector, long a cornerstone of helicopter operations, remains resilient despite ongoing volatility. While oil prices have fluctuated dramatically — plunging from over $100 to under $50 per barrel in 2014, then surging again amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict — the helicopter market has adapted. Since the last peak in 2014, the offshore fleet has contracted by roughly 25 percent and stabilized at around 1,400 aircraft, creating a leaner ecosystem than a decade ago.

Emerging tariffs add another layer of complexity. Terri Foley, chief operating officer at LCI, acknowledged their potential to disrupt the market but encouraged a measured perspective.

“We shouldn’t let ourselves get too concerned about immediate issues such as tariffs, which may well change over the next few months,” she advised.

Market overview and forecast

The civil helicopter fleet has experienced modest but steady growth, expanding by an average of one percent annually over the past decade. Emergency medical services (EMS) led this growth with a year-over-year increase of 3.2 percent, followed by the corporate and VIP sectors at 2.8 percent.

Although they account for only 20 percent of the total fleet, the offshore, search-and-rescue (SAR), and EMS sectors represent the highest asset values and the most attractive investment opportunities.

Foley emphasized the significant replacement demand, noting that about 70 percent of future market activity will be driven by replacement needs. “We’re essentially going to be catching up on a lost decade of helicopter replacement and investment,” Foley said.

According to Cirium, about 7,700 new civil turbine helicopters — worth $48 billion — are expected to be delivered by 2033. The market is forecast to be nearly evenly split between replacement and growth. Medium twin helicopters are projected to dominate, accounting for about a quarter of the total delivery value.

“In this category, we expect the [Leonardo] AW139 to continue to be the market leader,” Dhariwal said.

The intermediate twin segment — which includes the Leonardo AW169 and Airbus H145 — is expected to capture 20 percent of the total delivery value. Meanwhile, super medium helicopters like the Leonardo AW189 and Airbus H175 are projected to see modest but meaningful growth, making up 12 percent of the delivery value.

The helicopter leasing market remains relatively underdeveloped, according to Cirium. Currently, lessors manage just eight percent of the civil twin turbine fleet, compared to nearly 50 percent in fixed-wing aviation — indicating significant room for expansion, Dhariwal said.

“Since the downturn, lessors have focused on diversifying their portfolios, with the go-to sector being EMS, which has taken almost 50 percent of the leased fleet growth,” she added.

Lessors’ market share is highest in the offshore sector at around 25 percent, followed by EMS with a 10 percent share.

Challenges and opportunities

Sectors showing strong potential include offshore, EMS, SAR and firefighting — mission-critical operations with growing social and environmental significance. Pauline Gasquet, head of sustainability at RIVE Private Investment, emphasized their importance from both an impact and investment perspective.

“From a leasing perspective, we’re keen to see how the firefighting market may develop, particularly those that echo what we see with HEMS contracts, which are often longer term and government-backed,” Foley added. These types of agreements offer greater stability and predictability, making the sector increasingly attractive to lessors seeking more balanced, lower-risk portfolios.

Despite its challenges, the oil-and-gas sector remains a foundational pillar of helicopter operations. “Oil-and-gas is still a key player,” Foley said. “Helicopters play a vital role in safe and efficient transportation to the oil rigs, so oil-and-gas is very much an industry that will continue to require investment.”

Recent developments — such as SMFL LCI Helicopters’ acquisition of Macquarie Rotorcraft — signal a return to stability and growing investor confidence, according to Dhariwal.

Speculative orders and market discipline

The industry remains cautious about repeating past mistakes — particularly the overordering that once saturated the market and drove down prices. Foley emphasized the need for discipline.

“We recognize what happened in the past, and we don’t want to go back to that,” she said. “That’s why you hear the word ‘disciplined’ a lot. Even though there are ups and downs, we feel the industry is in a slightly more robust position.”

To avoid a return to speculative behavior, Foley advocated for a more strategic approach to fleet planning.

“We don’t want to see exuberant, speculative orders,” she said, recalling a period when lessors placed large orders for aircraft without confirmed placements — ultimately flooding the market and depressing rates. The focus now is on avoiding those missteps.

Rather than speculative buying, Foley supports what she calls “anticipatory” ordering: carefully timed, modest purchases that align with operator bids for new contracts, enable access to emerging technologies, and sustain healthy competition.

That said, the current market brings added complexity, including extended manufacturer lead times, supply chain constraints, and the potential impact of tariffs. Foley cautioned that these challenges shouldn’t trigger rushed decisions. Instead, lessors should evaluate true market demand, maintain diverse portfolios, and ensure that each aircraft has a clear market pathway.

She also highlighted the importance of staggered lease expirations. “We can’t be in a situation where we have a lot of aircraft of the same type all delivering at the same time,” Foley said. Spreading out expirations helps avoid market saturation and supports price stability.

Sustainability as a value driver

Sustainability emerged as a central theme. Gasquet called it a “value driver” with potential to improve efficiency, operations, and cost management.

“Sustainability is both a value driver and a business opportunity,” she said, underscoring the importance of data-driven strategies to showcase the sector’s positive impact.

Gasquet and Foley agreed that developing sector-wide sustainability frameworks will be essential, especially as regulatory pressures intensify.

Regarding the emergence of eVTOL aircraft, the consensus was that the technology remains several years away from disrupting traditional helicopter operations. Foley described eVTOLs as complementary rather than competitive, citing major challenges in certification and infrastructure.

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